diff --git a/strategy/02-reality-check.md b/strategy/02-reality-check.md index 5ae72bf..b59b997 100644 --- a/strategy/02-reality-check.md +++ b/strategy/02-reality-check.md @@ -8,19 +8,34 @@ ## Current Situation +Oleg. The solo founder and creator of Banatie. The only developer of the project. Own all tech, business and marketing processes. + ### Personal & Family Context **Family composition:** 5 people total - 2 adults (Oleg + Ekaterina) -- 2 children (Daniel, born 2019; Kirill, born Oct 7, 2024) -- 1 grandmother (living with family) +- 2 children (Daniel, born 2019; Kirill, born Oct 7, 2024 - around over 1y.o. by November of 2025) +- 1 grandmother (living with family) - actively helping with Kirill **Location:** Koh Samui, Thailand - 5-year DTV multi-visa for digital nomads - Can live and work remotely legally +- Rent a house in a resort -**Critical upcoming expense:** Private school for Daniel +**Remote Work:** Working remotely on a europe based company. +- Entity registered in USA. +- Payments via deel.com +- Russian speaking team +- Global customers +- Oleg personally works on a product, that is modern AI website builder +- Oleg rent a separate room in co-working to work in convenient isolated environment + +**Home Office:** +- Oleg has an additional working place in his home +- Oleg has two laptops: one is normally located in co-working and dedicated for work and another one is usually at home for side projects. Oleg own both of them + +**Critical upcoming expense:** International school for Daniel - Current budget: NO allocation for this -- Timing: Upcoming (exact date TBD) +- Timing: Upcoming (2026) - Impact: Major financial pressure point --- @@ -30,7 +45,7 @@ ### Current Income & Expenses **Current employment:** -- Position: Frontend Developer / Tech Lead +- Position: software engineer / senior/lead level - Employer: IT company (platform for generating designed websites from templates + AI components) - Monthly income: **$6,000 USD** - Status: **ONLY income source for entire family** @@ -65,41 +80,42 @@ ### Available Time for Banatie **Current allocation:** -- Weekday evenings: 2-3 hours (after family time) -- Weekends: 8-10 hours (Saturday + Sunday) +- Weekday evenings: 2-3 hours (after the main work time) +- Weekends: 4-8 hours (Saturday + Sunday) - **Total: ~15-20 hours/week** -**Constraint:** Full-time employment + newborn (Kirill, 2 weeks old as of this discussion) +**Constraint:** Full-time employment + family - High risk of burnout -- Family time non-negotiable -- Sleep deprivation factor (newborn care) +- Family time +- Age 45 y.o. ### Technical Capabilities (Force Multiplier) **Core skills:** -- 8+ years frontend development (React, Next.js) +- 8+ years web engineer (React, Next.js, NodeJS) - Deep expertise: Headless CMS (Sanity, Storyblok, Hygraph, Contentful, Crystallize, Payload) - Additional: Shopify, modern web stack, API integration - Strong: JavaScript, TypeScript, HTML, CSS, Web APIs, Tailwind CSS +- Postgres, Mongo +- Technical mindset +- AI SDK, Mastra -**Secret weapon: Agent Coding** -- Proficient with Claude Code (uses at day job too) +**Secret weapons:** +- Agent Coding: Proficient with Claude Code (uses at day job too) - Enables faster development without getting stuck - **This is why solo development is viable despite time constraints** +- Strong motivation +- Workaholism, the habit of investing oneself in work -**Current MVP status:** -✅ Core API service (Express + Node.js) -✅ UI application (Next.js) -✅ Basic feature set: - - Text-to-image generation (Gemini 2.5 Flash Image) - - Image upload - - Get all images - - API key management - - Authorization via API key -✅ Code snippet generation (curl, Python, SDK, MCP) for every UI action -✅ Documentation skeleton (needs content) +**Weak Points:** +- technical mindset instead of entrepreneurial mindset. Need mentor with strong entrepreneurial skills and vision +- lack of experience in launching own products +- Perfectionism, the desire to bring a product to perfection. Does not know when to stop technical development +- Tendency toward over-engineering. Need a strict partner who will make sure that Oleg doesn't get too caught up in the technical implementation and forget about the business goal of the project. +- 45 y.o., not so much energy as when Oleg was 30 y.o. -**Infrastructure:** + +**Existing Infrastructure:** - Hosting: Family VPS (Contabo, Singapore location) - Current services: NextCloud + multiple services for domain/Docker management - Plan: Migrate to dedicated VPS when needed @@ -278,31 +294,6 @@ **Abort criteria:** After 6 months, if <$500 MRR and no PMF signals → shut down ---- - -## Realistic Outcomes (Probability Assessment) - -### Best Case (20% probability) -- Nail ICP immediately, fast PMF -- $5K MRR by month 9 -- $10K+ MRR by month 18 -- Full-time leap successful -- **Outcome:** Sustainable family business, financial freedom - -### Base Case (50% probability) -- Find PMF after 1-2 pivots -- $2-3K MRR by month 12 -- Hybrid work arrangement with employer -- Slow but steady growth to $6-8K MRR by month 24 -- **Outcome:** Meaningful side income, eventual full-time potential - -### Worst Case (30% probability) -- No PMF after multiple attempts -- <$1K MRR by month 12 -- Shut down to preserve sanity/family -- **Outcome:** Learned expensive lessons, back to day job 100% - ---- ## Key Decisions Already Made @@ -326,28 +317,6 @@ --- -## Accountability Check-Ins - -**Weekly review (Sundays):** -- Hours worked on Banatie this week -- Key accomplishments -- Blockers/challenges -- Health check (burnout signs?) - -**Monthly review (last Sunday of month):** -- MRR update -- Customer count -- Churn rate -- Progress toward phase goals -- Adjust strategy if needed - -**Quarterly review (every 3 months):** -- Major pivot/continue/shut-down decision -- Financial reassessment -- Family situation update -- Next quarter OKRs - ---- ## Support System @@ -360,7 +329,7 @@ - Agent coding tools: Maintain velocity despite time constraints **Mentorship:** -- @men (business mentor): Strategic guidance, accountability, market knowledge +- @men AI agent (business mentor): Strategic guidance, accountability, market knowledge **Community:** - Dev.to, Indie Hackers, Twitter/X: Build in public, feedback, support @@ -368,5 +337,6 @@ --- **Document owner:** @men + Oleg (joint) +**Last updated:** 2025-11-01 **Next review:** After ICP validation (2-3 weeks) **Related docs:** `strategy/01-market-positioning-and-segments.md`, `execution/03-icp-research-questions.md`