# Banatie Project Roadmap

## 📅 Date Management Approach

**Philosophy:** Dates for completed work (track velocity), estimates for future work (reduce stress).

- ✅ **Completed tasks:** Record actual completion date
- 🔄 **In progress:** Show start date + estimated duration
- 📅 **Future tasks:** Show estimated duration only
- 🎯 **Milestones:** Relative timeframes from key decision points

**Why:** With 15-20 hrs/week availability, fixed deadlines create false pressure.

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## 🎯 Current Status

**Phase:** Pre-launch / ICP Validation  
**Sprint:** Interview Preparation (Day 1 of 2)  
**Focus:** A/B/C/D Segmentation Framework Complete  
**Next Milestone:** Begin validation interviews (10-14 across segments)  
**Last Updated:** November 2, 2025

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## ✅ Completed: Foundation (Oct 20 - Oct 30)

- [x] Market positioning clarified (Oct 25, 2025)
- [x] ICP hypothesis validated internally (Oct 28, 2025)
- [x] Pricing strategy drafted (Oct 29, 2025)
- [x] MVP scope defined (Oct 30, 2025)
- [x] Documentation framework established (Oct 30, 2025)

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## ✅ Completed: Passive Research Phase 1 (Oct 31 - Nov 2)

- [x] Direction 0 research (Initial Exploration) - Completed Oct 31, 2025
- [x] Direction 1 research (Agencies + Placeholder Hell) - Strong signals found
- [x] Direction 2 research (AI Coding Agents) - ⭐ STRONGEST validation (70-80% confidence)
- [x] Direction 6 research (Gemini/E-commerce) - Parking lot (ICP mismatch with no-code preference)
- [x] Directions 11-12 scoped (E-commerce deep-dive, NoCode builders) - Future exploration if needed
- [x] Research methodology documented ([passive-research-methodology.md](research/passive-research-methodology.md)) - Reusable framework
- [x] Research direction trackers created (10 directions mapped, 2 extensions planned)
- [x] Research navigation hub created ([research/INDEX.md](research/INDEX.md))
- [x] A/B/C/D segmentation framework created
- [x] Research documentation restructured (flat + descriptive names)

**Key Outcomes:**
- Direction 2 = 70-80% confidence (AI coding agents using Cursor/Claude Code)
- ICP refined to 4 segments: A (Studios), B (Power Users) ⭐, C (Freelancers), D (AI-savvy Freelancers) ⭐
- Technical product = same for all segments
- GTM differs by segment (messaging, pricing emphasis, outreach channels)
- 10 research directions mapped (0-10), 2 extensions scoped (11-12)
- Reusable research methodology established for future validation sprints
- Complete research documentation system created

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## 🔄 Active Sprint: Interview Preparation (Nov 2 - Nov 3)

**Goal:** Prepare for 10-14 validation interviews across A/B/C/D segments

### Tasks
- [ ] Create interview scripts for each segment (4 scripts)
  - [ ] A: Studios/Agencies (CEO/Manager)
  - [ ] B: Power Users (Tech leads with Cursor)
  - [ ] C: Freelancers (Solo)
  - [ ] D: AI-savvy Freelancers
- [ ] Identify specific outreach targets:
  - [ ] B: r/cursor Discord members, specific power users
  - [ ] D: Twitter #AIFreelancer list (20-30 profiles)
  - [ ] A: LinkedIn agency CEOs (50-100 list)
  - [ ] C: Upwork active freelancers, r/freelance members
- [ ] Prepare validation scorecard (track by segment)
- [ ] Plan outreach timeline (7-day sprint schedule)

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## 📅 Upcoming Sprint: External Validation (Nov 4 - Nov 10)

**Est. duration:** 7 days  
**Owner:** Oleg

### Interview Distribution
- **B (Power Users):** 3-4 interviews (PRIMARY focus)
- **D (AI Freelancers):** 3-4 interviews (SECONDARY)
- **A (Studios):** 2-3 interviews (TERTIARY)
- **C (Freelancers):** 2-3 interviews (BONUS)

**Total:** 10-14 interviews

### Success Criteria
- 60%+ say "I would use this" (6+ out of 10)
- 40%+ willing to pay $20+ (4+ out of 10)
- 30%+ want early access (3+ out of 10)
- **KILLER USE CASE identified:** ONE specific pain mentioned by 60%+

### Outreach Channels (Reddit ban workaround)
- **Discord #1:** Cursor + Claude servers (most active)
- **Twitter/X #2:** Search #cursor #ClaudeCode #AICoding
- **Dev.to #3:** Comment on AI coding articles
- **Indie Hackers #4:** Direct messaging
- **LinkedIn #5:** Careful approach (employer risk)

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## 📊 Key Metrics Dashboard

**Updated:** Weekly (Sundays)

### Validation Metrics (Active Sprint)
- Interviews completed: **0 / 10**
- Positive responses ("I would use"): **- / -**
- Willing to pay $20+: **- / -**
- Early access requests: **- / -**

**By Segment:**
- A (Studios): **0 / 3** interviews
- B (Power Users): **0 / 4** interviews ⭐ PRIMARY
- C (Freelancers): **0 / 3** interviews
- D (AI Freelancers): **0 / 4** interviews ⭐ SECONDARY

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## 🚦 Decision Gates

### GATE 1: ICP Validation (ACTIVE - Est. Nov 10, 2025)

**Started:** Nov 2, 2025 (preparation phase)

**Success criteria (ALL must be met):**
- 60%+ interviews say "I would use this" (6 out of 10)
- 40%+ willing to pay $20+ (4 out of 10)
- 30%+ want early access (3 out of 10)
- **KILLER USE CASE:** ONE specific, frequent pain mentioned by 60%+ (not scattered needs)
- Budget confirmed (they pay for other tools)

**Possible outcomes:**
- ✅ **GO** → Build MVP for validated segment (4-6 weeks)
- 🔄 **PIVOT** → Test different segment (add 1-2 weeks)
- 🛑 **STOP** → No market fit, fundamental rethink

**Review:** Upon completion with @men

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### GATE 2: MVP Launch Readiness

**Timeframe:** ~6-8 weeks after Gate 1 GO decision

**Success criteria:**
- MCP integration works reliably (95%+ success rate)
- 5-10 beta users onboarded
- 50+ generations completed
- 2+ users purchase credits
- No critical bugs

**Possible outcomes:**
- ✅ **LAUNCH** → Soft launch to communities
- 🔄 **ITERATE** → Add 1-2 weeks for improvements
- 🛑 **PIVOT** → Different approach needed

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### GATE 3: PMF Validation

**Timeframe:** ~6 months after Gate 1 GO

**Success criteria:**
- $1-2K MRR achieved
- <5% monthly churn
- "Can't live without" feedback from 3+ users
- Organic word-of-mouth starting

**Possible outcomes:**
- ✅ **SCALE** → Invest in growth
- 🔄 **OPTIMIZE** → Refine product
- 🛑 **PIVOT/STOP** → No PMF after 6 months

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## ⚠️ Risk Mitigation Watch

### HIGH PRIORITY RISKS

**1. Burnout Risk (Severity: HIGH)**
- Factors: Full-time job + side project + newborn (Kirill, Oct 7) + family of 5
- Current exposure: 60+ hrs/week total
- Monitor: Weekly health check-ins (Sundays)
- Mitigation: Strict time boundaries, one full day off/week, use Agent Coding
- Red flags: Health decline, family tension, job performance suffering
- Abort: If health/family at risk, pause Banatie

**2. Financial Pressure Risk (Severity: HIGH)**
- Factors: Zero buffer, school tuition coming, $6K/month sole income
- Current exposure: No emergency fund
- Monitor: Monthly expense tracking
- Mitigation: Keep day job until ≥$6K MRR, minimize expenses
- Red flags: Credit card debt, unpaid tuition, family money stress
- Abort: If Banatie costs >$500/month without revenue

**3. No PMF Risk (Severity: HIGHEST)**
- Factors: Unvalidated ICP, complex product, new category
- Current exposure: Hypothesis not yet tested externally
- Monitor: Interview feedback, usage metrics, qualitative signals
- Mitigation: Brutal validation BEFORE building more, ultra-MVP launch
- Red flags: No one willing to pay, high churn >10%, "cool but..." feedback
- Abort: After 6 months, if <$500 MRR and no PMF signals

**4. Employer Discovery Risk (Severity: MEDIUM)**
- Factors: Building side project while employed, same industry
- Current exposure: Public presence needed for marketing
- Monitor: LinkedIn mentions, colleague conversations
- Mitigation: Separate brand identity, delay LinkedIn, focus dev.to
- Red flags: Employer asks about side projects
- Abort: If employer forbids, negotiate exit OR pause publicly

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## 🔮 Future Milestones (After Validation)

### Post-Validation Phase (1-2 weeks after GO)

**IF GO decision (60%+ willing to use, 40%+ pay):**
- Finalize MVP scope based on validated needs
- Begin MCP server development
- Prepare beta access list

**IF PIVOT decision (<60% interest OR weak willingness to pay):**
- Select alternative segment
- New interview script
- Second validation round (1-2 weeks)

**IF STOP decision (<40% interest, no one willing to pay):**
- Document learnings
- Thank interviewees
- Reassess in 3-6 months

### MVP Development Phase (4-6 weeks after GO)

**Weeks 1-2:** Core generation + MCP integration
**Week 3:** MCP implementation  
**Week 4:** Transformations + UI refinement
**Week 5:** Payments + polish
**Week 6:** Beta testing + iteration

### Launch & Growth (Months 3-6 after validation)

**Month 3:** First paying customers
- Goal: 5-10 beta users, 50+ generations, 2+ purchases
- Target: $200-500 MRR

**Month 4:** Soft launch to communities
- r/ClaudeAI, Indie Hackers, dev.to
- Target: $500-1,000 MRR

**Month 5:** Growth optimization
- SEO content, community building, case studies
- Target: $1-2K MRR (Side Project Validation)

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## 🎯 Long-term Goals (Relative Milestones)

### Month 6: Side Project Validation
- MRR: $1-2K
- Customers: 10-20 paying
- Churn: <5% monthly
- Decision: Continue scaling OR reassess

### Month 9: Hybrid Mode Decision
- MRR: $3-5K
- Customers: 30-50 paying
- Options: 4-day work week OR stay full-time

### Month 12: Full-time Leap Evaluation
- MRR: $6K+ (salary replacement)
- OR: 12-month runway saved
- Decision: Go full-time OR continue hybrid

### 24-36 months: Sustainable Business
- MRR: $15-30K
- Hire 1-2 people
- Consider Ekaterina full-time on admin

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## 📋 Action Items Summary

**Active (This Week - Nov 2-3):**
1. Create 4 interview scripts (A/B/C/D segments)
2. Build outreach target lists (Discord, Twitter, LinkedIn, Upwork)
3. Prepare validation scorecard
4. Plan 7-day interview sprint schedule

**Next Week (Nov 4-10):**
1. Conduct 10-14 interviews across segments
2. Document results in validation scorecard
3. Make GO/PIVOT/STOP decision
4. Plan next phase based on outcome

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## 🎯 Success Definitions by Stage

### Pre-launch Success (Current)
- ✅ ICP validated externally (60%+ interest, 40%+ pay)
- ✅ MVP scope locked (validated needs)
- ✅ First 5 beta users identified

### Launch Success (Month 3-4)
- ✅ 5-10 beta users active
- ✅ 50+ generations completed
- ✅ 2+ credit purchases
- ✅ No critical bugs

### Early Traction (Month 6)
- ✅ $1-2K MRR
- ✅ <5% churn
- ✅ PMF signals ("can't live without")
- ✅ Organic growth starting

### Sustainability (Month 12)
- ✅ $6K+ MRR (salary replacement)
- ✅ Predictable growth
- ✅ Full-time transition viable
- ✅ Path to $10-15K MRR clear

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**Roadmap Owner:** @men + Oleg  
**Last Updated:** November 2, 2025  
**Next Review:** After ICP validation complete (Nov 10, 2025)  
**Version:** 3.0 (Research phase 1 completed, interview prep active)