banatie-strategy/08_validation_plan.md

# ICP Validation Plan: 2-Week Sprint

**Date:** October 20, 2025
**Goal:** Validate AI-powered developers as primary ICP through 5-10 external interviews
**Timeline:** 2 weeks (Oct 20 - Nov 3, 2025)
**Success Criteria:** 60%+ willing to use, 40%+ willing to pay $20+, 30%+ want early access

---

## Why This Validation is Critical

**Current status:**
- ✅ Founder (Oleg) validated as ICP (personal pain confirmed)
- â³ Need 5-10 external confirmations (ensure not a "snowflake")
- â³ Test messaging, pricing, feature priorities

**Risk if skipped:**
- Build for imaginary users (not actual market)
- Wrong feature prioritization (waste 2-3 months)
- Pricing mismatch (too high or too low)
- Wrong channels (can't reach customers)

**Investment:** 15-20 hours over 2 weeks
**Payoff:** 3-6 months saved on wrong direction

---

## Validation Objectives

### Primary Objectives (MUST VALIDATE)

1. **Pain confirmation:** Other AI developers struggle with same image workflow bottleneck
2. **Willingness to pay:** Ready to spend $10-50/month for solution
3. **Feature priority:** MCP integration is desired (not just nice-to-have)
4. **Usage frequency:** Build projects regularly enough to justify subscription/credits

### Secondary Objectives (BONUS DATA)

5. **Messaging resonance:** Which phrases/benefits resonate most
6. **Channel discovery:** Where did validated users come from
7. **Pricing preference:** Credits vs. subscription preference
8. **Competitor awareness:** What alternatives they're currently using

---

## Week 1: Outreach Setup + First Interviews

### Day 1-2 (Mon-Tue, Oct 20-21): Prep & Launch

**Tasks:**

#### Setup Anonymous Accounts
- [ ] Create throwaway Reddit account (e.g., `ai_dev_researcher`, `claude_code_user`)
- [ ] Create anonymous Indie Hackers account
- [ ] Join Discord servers:
  - [ ] Claude AI official Discord
  - [ ] Cursor Discord
  - [ ] AI Tinkerers
  - [ ] Next.js Discord

**Time:** 1-2 hours

---

#### Write Outreach Posts (3 variants)

**Variant A: Problem-focused**
```
Title: "Claude Code users: How do you handle images?"

Using Claude Code to build NextJS sites has been great, but images are still a pain. I end up:
1. Leaving Claude Code
2. Opening Gemini Studio/Midjourney
3. Generating manually
4. Downloading, organizing, importing

Takes longer than building the actual site sometimes.

How do you handle this? Any workflows that work well?

(Exploring this problem space, not selling anything yet)
```

**Variant B: Solution validation**
```
Title: "Would you use AI image generation directly from Claude Code?"

I've been using Claude Code for projects and love it, but image generation is a workflow killer.

Thinking about a tool that:
- Generates images via MCP (without leaving Claude Code)
- Returns production CDN URLs automatically
- Maintains consistency (logos, characters, etc.)

Would this solve a real problem for you? What's missing?
```

**Variant C: Workflow comparison**
```
Title: "AI-assisted devs: What's your image generation workflow?"

Quick survey for developers using AI coding tools (Claude Code, Cursor, etc.):

1. How do you generate images for your projects?
2. Where does it fit in your development workflow?
3. What's the most annoying part?
4. Would you pay to automate it?

Researching this space, want to understand actual pain points.
```

**Decision:** Test Variant A first (lowest friction), then B if low response

**Time:** 30 minutes

---

#### Post in Target Communities

**Priority 1 (Post immediately):**
- [ ] r/ClaudeAI (use Variant A)
- [ ] r/ChatGPTCoding (use Variant A or C)

**Priority 2 (Post Day 2):**
- [ ] r/nextjs (use Variant C - less AI-specific)
- [ ] Indie Hackers "Ask IH" (use Variant B)

**Priority 3 (If needed):**
- [ ] r/webdev (large but noisy)
- [ ] r/cursor (smaller community)

**Time:** 30 minutes (posting) + monitoring responses

---

### Day 3-4 (Wed-Thu, Oct 22-23): First Interviews

**Tasks:**

#### Respond to Comments & DM Respondents

**DM Template:**
```
Hey! Saw your comment on [post title].

I'm doing deeper research on AI developer workflows and would love to hear more about your experience.

Would you be open to answering 5-7 questions via DM? Should take ~10 minutes.

(Not selling anything, genuinely trying to understand the problem space)
```

**Response rate estimate:** 50-60% will agree (text-based is low friction)

**Time:** 2-3 hours (responding + DMing 10-15 people)

---

#### Conduct Text-Based Interviews (Target: 3-5)

**Interview Script (via DM):**

```
Thanks for agreeing to chat! Here are the questions:

1. What AI coding tools do you use? (Claude Code, Cursor, other?)

2. How often do you build web projects? (Daily, weekly, monthly?)

3. Do you generate images for your projects? If yes, how?

4. What's the most annoying part of your current image workflow?

5. How much time does image handling take vs. actual coding?

6. Have you tried to automate this? What did you try?

7. If there was an MCP tool that let Claude Code generate + insert production-ready images automatically, would you use it?

8. What would you pay for that? ($0, $10-20, $20-50, $50+/month or one-time credit packs?)

No rush, answer when convenient. Really appreciate your input!
```

**Documentation:** After each interview, fill out:
- Pain severity (1-10)
- Willingness to pay (Yes/No/Maybe + amount)
- Key quotes
- Red flags / Green lights

**Time:** 3-5 hours (depending on response speed)

---

### Day 5-7 (Fri-Sun, Oct 24-26): Additional Outreach + Interviews

**Tasks:**

#### Expand Outreach (If <5 interviews completed)

**Option A: More Reddit posts**
- [ ] r/IndieHackers
- [ ] r/SideProject (if applicable)

**Option B: Discord engagement**
- [ ] Post in #general or #tools channels (Claude AI Discord)
- [ ] Ask in #show-and-tell (if appropriate)

**Option C: Direct DMs to active users**
- [ ] Find recent posters in target subreddits
- [ ] DM with interview request

**Time:** 2-3 hours

---

#### Conduct More Interviews (Target: 5-7 total by end of Week 1)

**Same script as Day 3-4**

**Analysis checkpoint:**
- After 5 interviews, do initial pattern analysis
- Are 60%+ showing interest? (3 out of 5)
- Are 40%+ willing to pay $20+? (2 out of 5)
- If YES → continue
- If NO → reassess (wrong ICP? wrong messaging?)

**Time:** 3-5 hours

---

## Week 2: Deep Dive + Decision

### Day 8-10 (Mon-Wed, Oct 27-29): Final Interviews

**Tasks:**

#### Reach 10-15 Total Interviews

**If Week 1 went well (5-7 completed):**
- [ ] Conduct 3-5 more interviews
- [ ] Focus on validating specific insights from Week 1

**If Week 1 was slow (<5 completed):**
- [ ] Double down on outreach
- [ ] Try different messaging (Variant B or C)
- [ ] Consider voice calls (if willing to overcome English barrier)

**Time:** 4-6 hours

---

#### Pattern Analysis (Midpoint Review)

**After ~8-10 interviews, analyze:**

**Quantitative:**
- X% say "I would use this" (target: 60%+)
- X% willing to pay $20+ (target: 40%+)
- X% want early access (target: 30%+)

**Qualitative:**
- What words do THEY use to describe the problem?
- What features are mentioned most often?
- What objections/concerns come up repeatedly?
- What alternatives do they currently use?

**Pricing insights:**
- Credits vs. subscription preference?
- Price sensitivity ($10 vs $20 vs $50)?
- Usage patterns (episodic vs. regular)?

**Time:** 2-3 hours

---

### Day 11-12 (Thu-Fri, Oct 30-31): Final Analysis

**Tasks:**

#### Complete Interview Analysis

**Create summary document:**

**Validated Green Lights:**
- [ ] Consistent pain point confirmed (describe)
- [ ] Willingness to pay validated (X% at $Y price)
- [ ] MCP integration desired (X% want it)
- [ ] Usage frequency sufficient (X build projects monthly+)
- [ ] Current workarounds inadequate (describe)

**Red Flags Identified:**
- [ ] List any recurring objections
- [ ] Note any patterns of disinterest
- [ ] Identify segments that DON'T fit

**Messaging Insights:**
- Best phrases/benefits (what resonated)
- Worst messaging (what confused/turned off)
- Technical details to emphasize
- Pain points to lead with

**Channel Insights:**
- Which channels yielded best respondents?
- Where are validated users most active?
- Which communities to prioritize for launch?

**Time:** 3-4 hours

---

#### Compile Validation Report

**Structure:**

**1. Executive Summary**
- ICP validated? (Yes / Pivot / Stop)
- Confidence level (High / Medium / Low)
- Key insights (3-5 bullets)

**2. Interview Results**
- Total interviews: X
- Green lights: X% (target: 60%+)
- Willing to pay $20+: X% (target: 40%+)
- Want early access: X% (target: 30%+)

**3. Pain Point Confirmation**
- Describe the validated pain in THEIR words
- Severity ranking (1-10 average)
- Current workarounds (what they do now)

**4. Feature Priorities (from interviews)**
- Must-have features (top 3)
- Nice-to-have features
- Features they don't care about

**5. Pricing Insights**
- Preferred model (credits vs. subscription)
- Price sensitivity analysis
- Budget availability confirmed

**6. Messaging Recommendations**
- Lead with: [validated pain point]
- Emphasize: [key benefits in their language]
- Avoid: [messaging that didn't resonate]

**7. Next Steps**
- If validated: Build MVP for this ICP
- If pivot needed: Test different segment
- If stop: Reassess fundamental assumptions

**Time:** 2-3 hours

---

### Day 13-14 (Weekend, Nov 1-3): Decision + Planning

**Tasks:**

#### Go/Pivot/Stop Decision

**Decision Matrix:**

**GO (Build MVP for AI developers):**
- ✅ 60%+ willing to use
- ✅ 40%+ willing to pay $20+
- ✅ 30%+ want early access
- ✅ Consistent pain point
- ✅ Clear feature priorities
- ✅ Accessible channels identified

**PIVOT (Test different ICP):**
- âš ï¸ <60% willing to use
- âš ï¸ Interest but weak willingness to pay
- âš ï¸ Pain exists but not urgent
- âš ï¸ Conflicting feature requests
- âš ï¸ Budget concerns

**STOP (Fundamental rethink):**
- 🛑 <40% willing to use
- 🛑 No one willing to pay
- 🛑 Pain is theoretical, not actual
- 🛑 Current solutions adequate
- 🛑 Market doesn't exist

**Time:** 2-3 hours (discussion with @men)

---

#### If GO: Plan MVP Build

**Next steps:**
1. Finalize MVP scope based on validated priorities
2. Strip features to validated top 3 must-haves
3. Set 4-6 week development timeline
4. Plan beta launch to validated channels
5. Prepare early access list from interviews

**Time:** 2-3 hours

---

#### If PIVOT: Identify Alternative ICP

**Options:**
- Test agencies (original hypothesis)
- Test e-commerce (product image use case)
- Test different developer segment (WordPress, etc.)
- Refine AI developer segment (different pain point)

**Timeline:** Another 1-2 weeks validation

---

## Interview Documentation Template

**Use this for EVERY interview:**

---

**Interview #:** ___
**Date:** ___
**Channel:** (Reddit / Indie Hackers / Discord / DM)
**Contact:** (username / email - for follow-up)

---

**Q1: What AI coding tools do you use?**
Answer:

**Q2: How often do you build web projects?**
Answer:

**Q3: Do you generate images for your projects? How?**
Answer:

**Q4: Most annoying part of current workflow?**
Answer:

**Q5: Time spent on images vs. coding?**
Answer:

**Q6: Tried to automate? What did you try?**
Answer:

**Q7: Would you use MCP tool for image generation?**
Answer:

**Q8: What would you pay?**
Answer:

---

**ANALYSIS:**

**Pain Severity:** ___/10
**Willingness to Pay:** [ ] Yes at $\_\_ [ ] No [ ] Maybe
**Early Adopter:** [ ] High [ ] Medium [ ] Low

**Key Quotes:**
-
-

**Green Lights:**
-
-

**Red Flags:**
-
-

**Follow-up Notes:**
-

---

## Stealth Outreach Guidelines

**To avoid employer discovery:**

### ✅ DO:

- Use throwaway Reddit accounts (no connection to real identity)
- Use anonymous Indie Hackers account
- Use Discord with generic username
- Frame as "research" not "building a product"
- Focus on developer communities (not LinkedIn)
- Keep it casual, peer-to-peer tone
- Avoid mentioning current employer or location

### ⌠DON'T:

- Post on LinkedIn (colleagues will see)
- Use real name in Reddit/IH posts
- Mention "Thailand", "Frontend Developer", or other identifying details
- Reference current employer's product
- Post during work hours (timezone tells)
- Connect outreach accounts to personal social media

---

## Success Criteria (Validation Complete)

**ICP validated if ALL of these:**

- [x] 10-15 interviews completed
- [x] 60%+ say "I would use this" (6+ out of 10)
- [x] 40%+ willing to pay $20+ (4+ out of 10)
- [x] 30%+ want early access (3+ out of 10)
- [x] Consistent pain point (not scattered problems)
- [x] Budget confirmed (they pay for other tools)
- [x] Clear feature priorities (MCP + 2-3 others)

**Strong bonus signals:**

- Multiple people ask "When can I try this?"
- Referrals offered ("You should talk to...")
- Specific feature requests (they've thought deeply)
- Offer to beta test / provide feedback
- Share contact info for updates

---

## Time Investment Summary

**Week 1:**
- Day 1-2: 2-3 hours (setup + posts)
- Day 3-4: 5-8 hours (DMs + 3-5 interviews)
- Day 5-7: 5-8 hours (more outreach + interviews)
- **Total: 12-19 hours**

**Week 2:**
- Day 8-10: 6-9 hours (final interviews + analysis)
- Day 11-12: 5-7 hours (report + decision)
- Day 13-14: 2-3 hours (planning next steps)
- **Total: 13-19 hours**

**Grand Total: 25-38 hours over 2 weeks**

**This is 15-20 hours/week (matches your available time)**

---

## Contingency Plans

### If Low Response Rate (<5 interviews by end of Week 1)

**Options:**

1. **Try different messaging:**
   - Use Variant B or C
   - More direct value prop
   - Offer incentive (early access, discount)

2. **Expand channels:**
   - Discord (more active communities)
   - Twitter DMs (if comfortable)
   - Dev.to (carefully, your existing account)

3. **Voice calls (overcome language barrier):**
   - Offer 15-min video calls (record if permitted)
   - Use real-time translation tools
   - Prepare questions in advance

4. **Leverage network:**
   - Ask developer friends
   - Former colleagues (trusted)
   - Online acquaintances

---

### If Conflicting Feedback

**Example:** 50% love MCP, 50% don't care about MCP

**Action:**
- Segment respondents (who loves it vs. who doesn't?)
- Is there a clearer sub-ICP? (e.g., solo devs vs. team devs)
- Which segment has higher willingness to pay?
- Prioritize segment with strongest signals

---

### If Validated Pain But No Willingness to Pay

**Red flag:** "I'd use it if it was free"

**Possible issues:**
- Price too high (test $10 tier)
- Value not clear (emphasize ROI)
- Wrong ICP (hobbyists, not professionals)
- Market too immature (wait 6-12 months)

**Decision:** PIVOT to different segment OR wait for market maturity

---

## Post-Validation: Next Steps

### If GO Decision:

**Immediate actions (Week 3):**
1. Create validated MVP scope document (strip to top 3 features)
2. Set development timeline (4-6 weeks)
3. Prepare beta access list (from interviews)
4. Design onboarding flow (MCP setup, first generation)
5. Plan soft launch strategy (Reddit post in r/ClaudeAI)

**Communication to interviewees:**
```
Subject: Thanks for your input on AI dev workflow research

Hey [Name],

Thanks for taking time to chat about your development workflow a few weeks ago.

Based on feedback from you and others, I'm building a tool to solve the image generation bottleneck for AI-assisted developers.

Would you be interested in early access? I'll send an invite when it's ready (estimated [date]).

No pressure - just wanted to close the loop since you helped validate this.

Cheers,
Oleg
```

---

### If PIVOT Decision:

**Immediate actions (Week 3):**
1. Select alternative ICP hypothesis
2. Prepare new interview script
3. Identify channels for alternative ICP
4. Run another 5-10 interviews (1-2 weeks)
5. Set final deadline (if 2nd ICP fails, stop)

---

### If STOP Decision:

**Immediate actions:**
1. Document learnings (what didn't work)
2. Preserve relationships (thank interviewees)
3. Consider: Different problem? Different approach?
4. Reassess: Continue as side project OR shut down?
5. Focus energy back on day job (reduce stress)

---

## Key Reminders

**✅ DO:**
- Be genuinely curious (not selling)
- Listen more than talk
- Ask "why" follow-up questions
- Document immediately after each interview
- Thank people for their time

**⌠DON'T:**
- Pitch the product (you're learning, not selling)
- Lead the witness ("Wouldn't you love X?")
- Ignore red flags (confirmation bias)
- Skip documentation (memory fades fast)
- Give up after 3-4 interviews (need 10+ for patterns)

---

**Document owner:** @men
**Timeline:** Oct 20 - Nov 3, 2025 (2 weeks)
**Next milestone:** Go/Pivot/Stop decision by Nov 3
**Related docs:** `07_validated_icp_ai_developers.md`, `09_mvp_scope.md`