398 lines
12 KiB
Markdown
398 lines
12 KiB
Markdown
# Banatie Project Roadmap
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## 📅 Date Management Approach
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**Philosophy:** Dates for completed work (track velocity), estimates for future work (reduce stress).
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- ✅ **Completed tasks:** Record actual completion date
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- 🔄 **In progress:** Show start date + estimated duration
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- 📅 **Future tasks:** Show estimated duration only
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- 🎯 **Milestones:** Relative timeframes from key decision points
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**Why:** With 15-20 hrs/week availability, fixed deadlines create false pressure.
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---
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## 🎯 Current Status
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**Phase:** Pre-launch / ICP Validation
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**Sprint:** Interview Preparation (Day 1 of 2)
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**Focus:** A/B/C/D Segmentation Framework Complete
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**Next Milestone:** Begin validation interviews (10-14 across segments)
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**Last Updated:** November 2, 2025
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---
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## ✅ Completed: Foundation (Oct 20 - Oct 30)
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- [x] Market positioning clarified (Oct 25, 2025)
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- [x] ICP hypothesis validated internally (Oct 28, 2025)
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- [x] Pricing strategy drafted (Oct 29, 2025)
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- [x] MVP scope defined (Oct 30, 2025)
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- [x] Documentation framework established (Oct 30, 2025)
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---
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## ✅ Completed: Passive Research Phase 1 (Oct 31 - Nov 2)
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- [x] Direction 1 research (Agencies + Placeholder Hell) - Strong signals
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- [x] Direction 2 research (AI Coding Agents) - ⭐ STRONGEST validation
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- [x] Direction 6 research (Gemini/E-commerce) - Parking lot (ICP mismatch)
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- [x] A/B/C/D segmentation framework created
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- [x] Research documentation restructured (flat + prefixes)
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**Key Outcomes:**
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- Direction 2 = 70-80% confidence (AI coding agents)
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- ICP refined to 4 segments: A/B/C/D
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- Technical product = same for all segments
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- GTM differs by segment (messaging, pricing, channels)
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---
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## 🔄 Active Sprint: Interview Preparation (Nov 2 - Nov 3)
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**Goal:** Prepare for 10-14 validation interviews across A/B/C/D segments
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### Tasks
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- [ ] Create interview scripts for each segment (4 scripts)
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- [ ] A: Studios/Agencies (CEO/Manager)
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- [ ] B: Power Users (Tech leads with Cursor)
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- [ ] C: Freelancers (Solo)
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- [ ] D: AI-savvy Freelancers
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- [ ] Identify specific outreach targets:
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- [ ] B: r/cursor Discord members, specific power users
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- [ ] D: Twitter #AIFreelancer list (20-30 profiles)
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- [ ] A: LinkedIn agency CEOs (50-100 list)
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- [ ] C: Upwork active freelancers, r/freelance members
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- [ ] Prepare validation scorecard (track by segment)
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- [ ] Plan outreach timeline (7-day sprint schedule)
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---
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## 📅 Upcoming Sprint: External Validation (Nov 4 - Nov 10)
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**Est. duration:** 7 days
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**Owner:** Oleg
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### Interview Distribution
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- **B (Power Users):** 3-4 interviews (PRIMARY focus)
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- **D (AI Freelancers):** 3-4 interviews (SECONDARY)
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- **A (Studios):** 2-3 interviews (TERTIARY)
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- **C (Freelancers):** 2-3 interviews (BONUS)
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**Total:** 10-14 interviews
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### Success Criteria
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- 60%+ say "I would use this" (6+ out of 10)
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- 40%+ willing to pay $20+ (4+ out of 10)
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- 30%+ want early access (3+ out of 10)
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- **KILLER USE CASE identified:** ONE specific pain mentioned by 60%+
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### Outreach Channels (Reddit ban workaround)
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- **Discord #1:** Cursor + Claude servers (most active)
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- **Twitter/X #2:** Search #cursor #ClaudeCode #AICoding
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- **Dev.to #3:** Comment on AI coding articles
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- **Indie Hackers #4:** Direct messaging
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- **LinkedIn #5:** Careful approach (employer risk)
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---
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## 📊 Key Metrics Dashboard
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**Updated:** Weekly (Sundays)
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### Validation Metrics (Active Sprint)
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- Interviews completed: **0 / 10**
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- Positive responses ("I would use"): **- / -**
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- Willing to pay $20+: **- / -**
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- Early access requests: **- / -**
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**By Segment:**
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- A (Studios): **0 / 3** interviews
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- B (Power Users): **0 / 4** interviews ⭐ PRIMARY
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- C (Freelancers): **0 / 3** interviews
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- D (AI Freelancers): **0 / 4** interviews ⭐ SECONDARY
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---
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## 🚦 Decision Gates
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### GATE 1: ICP Validation (ACTIVE - Est. Nov 10, 2025)
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**Started:** Nov 2, 2025 (preparation phase)
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**Success criteria (ALL must be met):**
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- 60%+ interviews say "I would use this" (6 out of 10)
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- 40%+ willing to pay $20+ (4 out of 10)
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- 30%+ want early access (3 out of 10)
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- **KILLER USE CASE:** ONE specific, frequent pain mentioned by 60%+ (not scattered needs)
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- Budget confirmed (they pay for other tools)
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**Possible outcomes:**
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- ✅ **GO** → Build MVP for validated segment (4-6 weeks)
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- 🔄 **PIVOT** → Test different segment (add 1-2 weeks)
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- 🛑 **STOP** → No market fit, fundamental rethink
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**Review:** Upon completion with @men
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---
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### GATE 2: MVP Launch Readiness
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**Timeframe:** ~6-8 weeks after Gate 1 GO decision
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**Success criteria:**
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- MCP integration works reliably (95%+ success rate)
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- 5-10 beta users onboarded
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- 50+ generations completed
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- 2+ users purchase credits
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- No critical bugs
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**Possible outcomes:**
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- ✅ **LAUNCH** → Soft launch to communities
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- 🔄 **ITERATE** → Add 1-2 weeks for improvements
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- 🛑 **PIVOT** → Different approach needed
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---
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### GATE 3: PMF Validation
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**Timeframe:** ~6 months after Gate 1 GO
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**Success criteria:**
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- $1-2K MRR achieved
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- <5% monthly churn
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- "Can't live without" feedback from 3+ users
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- Organic word-of-mouth starting
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**Possible outcomes:**
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- ✅ **SCALE** → Invest in growth
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- 🔄 **OPTIMIZE** → Refine product
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- 🛑 **PIVOT/STOP** → No PMF after 6 months
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---
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## ⚠️ Risk Mitigation Watch
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### HIGH PRIORITY RISKS
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**1. Burnout Risk (Severity: HIGH)**
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- Factors: Full-time job + side project + newborn (Kirill, Oct 7) + family of 5
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- Current exposure: 60+ hrs/week total
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- Monitor: Weekly health check-ins (Sundays)
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- Mitigation: Strict time boundaries, one full day off/week, use Agent Coding
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- Red flags: Health decline, family tension, job performance suffering
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- Abort: If health/family at risk, pause Banatie
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**2. Financial Pressure Risk (Severity: HIGH)**
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- Factors: Zero buffer, school tuition coming, $6K/month sole income
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- Current exposure: No emergency fund
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- Monitor: Monthly expense tracking
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- Mitigation: Keep day job until ≥$6K MRR, minimize expenses
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- Red flags: Credit card debt, unpaid tuition, family money stress
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- Abort: If Banatie costs >$500/month without revenue
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**3. No PMF Risk (Severity: HIGHEST)**
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- Factors: Unvalidated ICP, complex product, new category
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- Current exposure: Hypothesis not yet tested externally
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- Monitor: Interview feedback, usage metrics, qualitative signals
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- Mitigation: Brutal validation BEFORE building more, ultra-MVP launch
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- Red flags: No one willing to pay, high churn >10%, "cool but..." feedback
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- Abort: After 6 months, if <$500 MRR and no PMF signals
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**4. Employer Discovery Risk (Severity: MEDIUM)**
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- Factors: Building side project while employed, same industry
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- Current exposure: Public presence needed for marketing
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- Monitor: LinkedIn mentions, colleague conversations
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- Mitigation: Separate brand identity, delay LinkedIn, focus dev.to
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- Red flags: Employer asks about side projects
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- Abort: If employer forbids, negotiate exit OR pause publicly
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---
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## 📊 Research Insights Summary
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### Direction 2 (AI Coding Agents) ⭐ VALIDATED
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**🟢 Strong Signals:**
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- Massive user base (36K+ r/cursor members)
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- Stock photos pain (generic, overused)
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- Willingness to pay ($20-200/mo for AI tools)
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- Manual Midjourney workflow tedious
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- Aspect ratio limitations
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- Image optimization time-consuming
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- Paid MCP business model works
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**ICP Match:** 70-80% confidence
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- Founder IS the ICP (uses Claude Code)
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- Technical fit = perfect (MCP + SDK)
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- Market size = huge
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- Fast to revenue
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### Direction 1 (Agencies) - Secondary
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**🟢 Signals:**
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- "Placeholder hell" validated
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- Client approval blocked without realistic images
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**⚠️ Concerns:**
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- ICP mismatch (agencies ≠ validated audience)
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- Unclear if AI solves approval problem
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- Longer sales cycle (B2B)
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### Direction 6 (E-commerce) - Parking Lot
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**🟢 Signals:**
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- Huge market ($50B product photography)
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- Clear use case (1 photo → 100 variations)
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**🔴 Problems:**
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- ICP mismatch (no-code preference)
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- Free tier competition (16K-31K images/month FREE)
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- Pivot required (3-6 months)
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---
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## 🎯 Validated ICP Segments (A/B/C/D)
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**A) Studios/Agencies - Decision Maker**
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- CEO/Founder/Manager in 3-10 person team
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- Higher ACV ($149/mo potential)
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- Longer sales cycle
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**B) Power Users - Tech Champion** ⭐ PRIMARY
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- Tech leads using Cursor/Claude Code
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- Already pay $20-200/mo for AI tools
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- Fast decision, can influence team adoption
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**C) Freelancers - Solo Decision**
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- Most price-sensitive
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- Fast decision (no approval needed)
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- Credits > subscription preference
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**D) AI-Savvy Freelancers - Power Solo** ⭐ SECONDARY
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- Active AI tool users (Cursor, ChatGPT)
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- High project volume
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- Time = money mindset
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**Technical Product:** SAME for all segments
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- Differences only in GTM (messaging, pricing emphasis, channels)
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---
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## 🔮 Future Milestones (After Validation)
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### Post-Validation Phase (1-2 weeks after GO)
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**IF GO decision (60%+ willing to use, 40%+ pay):**
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- Finalize MVP scope based on validated needs
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- Begin MCP server development
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- Prepare beta access list
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**IF PIVOT decision (<60% interest OR weak willingness to pay):**
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- Select alternative segment
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- New interview script
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- Second validation round (1-2 weeks)
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**IF STOP decision (<40% interest, no one willing to pay):**
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- Document learnings
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- Thank interviewees
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- Reassess in 3-6 months
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### MVP Development Phase (4-6 weeks after GO)
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**Weeks 1-2:** Core generation + MCP integration
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**Week 3:** MCP implementation
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**Week 4:** Transformations + UI refinement
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**Week 5:** Payments + polish
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**Week 6:** Beta testing + iteration
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### Launch & Growth (Months 3-6 after validation)
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**Month 3:** First paying customers
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- Goal: 5-10 beta users, 50+ generations, 2+ purchases
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- Target: $200-500 MRR
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**Month 4:** Soft launch to communities
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- r/ClaudeAI, Indie Hackers, dev.to
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- Target: $500-1,000 MRR
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**Month 5:** Growth optimization
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- SEO content, community building, case studies
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- Target: $1-2K MRR (Side Project Validation)
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---
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## 🎯 Long-term Goals (Relative Milestones)
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### Month 6: Side Project Validation
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- MRR: $1-2K
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- Customers: 10-20 paying
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- Churn: <5% monthly
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- Decision: Continue scaling OR reassess
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### Month 9: Hybrid Mode Decision
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- MRR: $3-5K
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- Customers: 30-50 paying
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- Options: 4-day work week OR stay full-time
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### Month 12: Full-time Leap Evaluation
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- MRR: $6K+ (salary replacement)
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- OR: 12-month runway saved
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- Decision: Go full-time OR continue hybrid
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### 24-36 months: Sustainable Business
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- MRR: $15-30K
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- Hire 1-2 people
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- Consider Ekaterina full-time on admin
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---
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## 📋 Action Items Summary
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**Active (This Week - Nov 2-3):**
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1. Create 4 interview scripts (A/B/C/D segments)
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2. Build outreach target lists (Discord, Twitter, LinkedIn, Upwork)
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3. Prepare validation scorecard
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4. Plan 7-day interview sprint schedule
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**Next Week (Nov 4-10):**
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1. Conduct 10-14 interviews across segments
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2. Document results in validation scorecard
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3. Make GO/PIVOT/STOP decision
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4. Plan next phase based on outcome
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---
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## 🎯 Success Definitions by Stage
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### Pre-launch Success (Current)
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- ✅ ICP validated externally (60%+ interest, 40%+ pay)
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- ✅ MVP scope locked (validated needs)
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- ✅ First 5 beta users identified
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### Launch Success (Month 3-4)
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- ✅ 5-10 beta users active
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- ✅ 50+ generations completed
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- ✅ 2+ credit purchases
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- ✅ No critical bugs
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### Early Traction (Month 6)
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- ✅ $1-2K MRR
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- ✅ <5% churn
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- ✅ PMF signals ("can't live without")
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- ✅ Organic growth starting
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### Sustainability (Month 12)
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- ✅ $6K+ MRR (salary replacement)
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- ✅ Predictable growth
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- ✅ Full-time transition viable
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- ✅ Path to $10-15K MRR clear
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---
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**Roadmap Owner:** @men + Oleg
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**Last Updated:** November 2, 2025
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**Next Review:** After ICP validation complete (Nov 10, 2025)
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**Version:** 3.0 (Research phase 1 completed, interview prep active)
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