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Banatie Project Roadmap

📅 Date Management Approach

Philosophy: Dates for completed work (track velocity), estimates for future work (reduce stress).

  • ✅ Completed tasks: Record actual completion date
  • 🔄 In progress: Show start date + estimated duration
  • 📅 Future tasks: Show estimated duration only
  • 🎯 Milestones: Relative timeframes from key decision points

Why: With 15-20 hrs/week availability, fixed deadlines create false pressure.

🎯 Current Status

Phase: Pre-launch / ICP Validation
Sprint: Interview Preparation (Day 1 of 2)
Focus: A/B/C/D Segmentation Framework Complete
Next Milestone: Begin validation interviews (10-14 across segments)
Last Updated: November 2, 2025

✅ Completed: Foundation (Oct 20 - Oct 30)

  • Market positioning clarified (Oct 25, 2025)
  • ICP hypothesis validated internally (Oct 28, 2025)
  • Pricing strategy drafted (Oct 29, 2025)
  • MVP scope defined (Oct 30, 2025)
  • Documentation framework established (Oct 30, 2025)

✅ Completed: Passive Research Phase 1 (Oct 31 - Nov 2)

  • Direction 1 research (Agencies + Placeholder Hell) - Strong signals
  • Direction 2 research (AI Coding Agents) - ⭐ STRONGEST validation
  • Direction 6 research (Gemini/E-commerce) - Parking lot (ICP mismatch)
  • A/B/C/D segmentation framework created
  • Research documentation restructured (flat + prefixes)

Key Outcomes:

  • Direction 2 = 70-80% confidence (AI coding agents)
  • ICP refined to 4 segments: A/B/C/D
  • Technical product = same for all segments
  • GTM differs by segment (messaging, pricing, channels)

🔄 Active Sprint: Interview Preparation (Nov 2 - Nov 3)

Goal: Prepare for 10-14 validation interviews across A/B/C/D segments

Tasks

  • Create interview scripts for each segment (4 scripts)
    • A: Studios/Agencies (CEO/Manager)
    • B: Power Users (Tech leads with Cursor)
    • C: Freelancers (Solo)
    • D: AI-savvy Freelancers
  • Identify specific outreach targets:
    • B: r/cursor Discord members, specific power users
    • D: Twitter #AIFreelancer list (20-30 profiles)
    • A: LinkedIn agency CEOs (50-100 list)
    • C: Upwork active freelancers, r/freelance members
  • Prepare validation scorecard (track by segment)
  • Plan outreach timeline (7-day sprint schedule)

📅 Upcoming Sprint: External Validation (Nov 4 - Nov 10)

Est. duration: 7 days
Owner: Oleg

Interview Distribution

  • B (Power Users): 3-4 interviews (PRIMARY focus)
  • D (AI Freelancers): 3-4 interviews (SECONDARY)
  • A (Studios): 2-3 interviews (TERTIARY)
  • C (Freelancers): 2-3 interviews (BONUS)

Total: 10-14 interviews

Success Criteria

  • 60%+ say "I would use this" (6+ out of 10)
  • 40%+ willing to pay $20+ (4+ out of 10)
  • 30%+ want early access (3+ out of 10)
  • KILLER USE CASE identified: ONE specific pain mentioned by 60%+

Outreach Channels (Reddit ban workaround)

  • Discord #1: Cursor + Claude servers (most active)
  • Twitter/X #2: Search #cursor #ClaudeCode #AICoding
  • Dev.to #3: Comment on AI coding articles
  • Indie Hackers #4: Direct messaging
  • LinkedIn #5: Careful approach (employer risk)

📊 Key Metrics Dashboard

Updated: Weekly (Sundays)

Validation Metrics (Active Sprint)

  • Interviews completed: 0 / 10
  • Positive responses ("I would use"): - / -
  • Willing to pay $20+: - / -
  • Early access requests: - / -

By Segment:

  • A (Studios): 0 / 3 interviews
  • B (Power Users): 0 / 4 interviews ⭐ PRIMARY
  • C (Freelancers): 0 / 3 interviews
  • D (AI Freelancers): 0 / 4 interviews ⭐ SECONDARY

🚦 Decision Gates

GATE 1: ICP Validation (ACTIVE - Est. Nov 10, 2025)

Started: Nov 2, 2025 (preparation phase)

Success criteria (ALL must be met):

  • 60%+ interviews say "I would use this" (6 out of 10)
  • 40%+ willing to pay $20+ (4 out of 10)
  • 30%+ want early access (3 out of 10)
  • KILLER USE CASE: ONE specific, frequent pain mentioned by 60%+ (not scattered needs)
  • Budget confirmed (they pay for other tools)

Possible outcomes:

  • ✅ GO → Build MVP for validated segment (4-6 weeks)
  • 🔄 PIVOT → Test different segment (add 1-2 weeks)
  • 🛑 STOP → No market fit, fundamental rethink

Review: Upon completion with @men

GATE 2: MVP Launch Readiness

Timeframe: ~6-8 weeks after Gate 1 GO decision

Success criteria:

  • MCP integration works reliably (95%+ success rate)
  • 5-10 beta users onboarded
  • 50+ generations completed
  • 2+ users purchase credits
  • No critical bugs

Possible outcomes:

  • ✅ LAUNCH → Soft launch to communities
  • 🔄 ITERATE → Add 1-2 weeks for improvements
  • 🛑 PIVOT → Different approach needed

GATE 3: PMF Validation

Timeframe: ~6 months after Gate 1 GO

Success criteria:

  • $1-2K MRR achieved
  • <5% monthly churn
  • "Can't live without" feedback from 3+ users
  • Organic word-of-mouth starting

Possible outcomes:

  • ✅ SCALE → Invest in growth
  • 🔄 OPTIMIZE → Refine product
  • 🛑 PIVOT/STOP → No PMF after 6 months

⚠️ Risk Mitigation Watch

HIGH PRIORITY RISKS

1. Burnout Risk (Severity: HIGH)

  • Factors: Full-time job + side project + newborn (Kirill, Oct 7) + family of 5
  • Current exposure: 60+ hrs/week total
  • Monitor: Weekly health check-ins (Sundays)
  • Mitigation: Strict time boundaries, one full day off/week, use Agent Coding
  • Red flags: Health decline, family tension, job performance suffering
  • Abort: If health/family at risk, pause Banatie

2. Financial Pressure Risk (Severity: HIGH)

  • Factors: Zero buffer, school tuition coming, $6K/month sole income
  • Current exposure: No emergency fund
  • Monitor: Monthly expense tracking
  • Mitigation: Keep day job until ≥$6K MRR, minimize expenses
  • Red flags: Credit card debt, unpaid tuition, family money stress
  • Abort: If Banatie costs >$500/month without revenue

3. No PMF Risk (Severity: HIGHEST)

  • Factors: Unvalidated ICP, complex product, new category
  • Current exposure: Hypothesis not yet tested externally
  • Monitor: Interview feedback, usage metrics, qualitative signals
  • Mitigation: Brutal validation BEFORE building more, ultra-MVP launch
  • Red flags: No one willing to pay, high churn >10%, "cool but..." feedback
  • Abort: After 6 months, if <$500 MRR and no PMF signals

4. Employer Discovery Risk (Severity: MEDIUM)

  • Factors: Building side project while employed, same industry
  • Current exposure: Public presence needed for marketing
  • Monitor: LinkedIn mentions, colleague conversations
  • Mitigation: Separate brand identity, delay LinkedIn, focus dev.to
  • Red flags: Employer asks about side projects
  • Abort: If employer forbids, negotiate exit OR pause publicly

📊 Research Insights Summary

Direction 2 (AI Coding Agents) ⭐ VALIDATED

🟢 Strong Signals:

  • Massive user base (36K+ r/cursor members)
  • Stock photos pain (generic, overused)
  • Willingness to pay ($20-200/mo for AI tools)
  • Manual Midjourney workflow tedious
  • Aspect ratio limitations
  • Image optimization time-consuming
  • Paid MCP business model works

ICP Match: 70-80% confidence

  • Founder IS the ICP (uses Claude Code)
  • Technical fit = perfect (MCP + SDK)
  • Market size = huge
  • Fast to revenue

Direction 1 (Agencies) - Secondary

🟢 Signals:

  • "Placeholder hell" validated
  • Client approval blocked without realistic images

⚠️ Concerns:

  • ICP mismatch (agencies ≠ validated audience)
  • Unclear if AI solves approval problem
  • Longer sales cycle (B2B)

Direction 6 (E-commerce) - Parking Lot

🟢 Signals:

  • Huge market ($50B product photography)
  • Clear use case (1 photo → 100 variations)

🔴 Problems:

  • ICP mismatch (no-code preference)
  • Free tier competition (16K-31K images/month FREE)
  • Pivot required (3-6 months)

🎯 Validated ICP Segments (A/B/C/D)

A) Studios/Agencies - Decision Maker

  • CEO/Founder/Manager in 3-10 person team
  • Higher ACV ($149/mo potential)
  • Longer sales cycle

B) Power Users - Tech Champion ⭐ PRIMARY

  • Tech leads using Cursor/Claude Code
  • Already pay $20-200/mo for AI tools
  • Fast decision, can influence team adoption

C) Freelancers - Solo Decision

  • Most price-sensitive
  • Fast decision (no approval needed)
  • Credits > subscription preference

D) AI-Savvy Freelancers - Power Solo ⭐ SECONDARY

  • Active AI tool users (Cursor, ChatGPT)
  • High project volume
  • Time = money mindset

Technical Product: SAME for all segments

  • Differences only in GTM (messaging, pricing emphasis, channels)

🔮 Future Milestones (After Validation)

Post-Validation Phase (1-2 weeks after GO)

IF GO decision (60%+ willing to use, 40%+ pay):

  • Finalize MVP scope based on validated needs
  • Begin MCP server development
  • Prepare beta access list

IF PIVOT decision (<60% interest OR weak willingness to pay):

  • Select alternative segment
  • New interview script
  • Second validation round (1-2 weeks)

IF STOP decision (<40% interest, no one willing to pay):

  • Document learnings
  • Thank interviewees
  • Reassess in 3-6 months

MVP Development Phase (4-6 weeks after GO)

Weeks 1-2: Core generation + MCP integration Week 3: MCP implementation
Week 4: Transformations + UI refinement Week 5: Payments + polish Week 6: Beta testing + iteration

Launch & Growth (Months 3-6 after validation)

Month 3: First paying customers

  • Goal: 5-10 beta users, 50+ generations, 2+ purchases
  • Target: $200-500 MRR

Month 4: Soft launch to communities

  • r/ClaudeAI, Indie Hackers, dev.to
  • Target: $500-1,000 MRR

Month 5: Growth optimization

  • SEO content, community building, case studies
  • Target: $1-2K MRR (Side Project Validation)

🎯 Long-term Goals (Relative Milestones)

Month 6: Side Project Validation

  • MRR: $1-2K
  • Customers: 10-20 paying
  • Churn: <5% monthly
  • Decision: Continue scaling OR reassess

Month 9: Hybrid Mode Decision

  • MRR: $3-5K
  • Customers: 30-50 paying
  • Options: 4-day work week OR stay full-time

Month 12: Full-time Leap Evaluation

  • MRR: $6K+ (salary replacement)
  • OR: 12-month runway saved
  • Decision: Go full-time OR continue hybrid

24-36 months: Sustainable Business

  • MRR: $15-30K
  • Hire 1-2 people
  • Consider Ekaterina full-time on admin

📋 Action Items Summary

Active (This Week - Nov 2-3):

  1. Create 4 interview scripts (A/B/C/D segments)
  2. Build outreach target lists (Discord, Twitter, LinkedIn, Upwork)
  3. Prepare validation scorecard
  4. Plan 7-day interview sprint schedule

Next Week (Nov 4-10):

  1. Conduct 10-14 interviews across segments
  2. Document results in validation scorecard
  3. Make GO/PIVOT/STOP decision
  4. Plan next phase based on outcome

🎯 Success Definitions by Stage

Pre-launch Success (Current)

  • ✅ ICP validated externally (60%+ interest, 40%+ pay)
  • ✅ MVP scope locked (validated needs)
  • ✅ First 5 beta users identified

Launch Success (Month 3-4)

  • ✅ 5-10 beta users active
  • ✅ 50+ generations completed
  • ✅ 2+ credit purchases
  • ✅ No critical bugs

Early Traction (Month 6)

  • ✅ $1-2K MRR
  • ✅ <5% churn
  • ✅ PMF signals ("can't live without")
  • ✅ Organic growth starting

Sustainability (Month 12)

  • ✅ $6K+ MRR (salary replacement)
  • ✅ Predictable growth
  • ✅ Full-time transition viable
  • ✅ Path to $10-15K MRR clear

Roadmap Owner: @men + Oleg
Last Updated: November 2, 2025
Next Review: After ICP validation complete (Nov 10, 2025)
Version: 3.0 (Research phase 1 completed, interview prep active)