424 lines
14 KiB
Markdown
424 lines
14 KiB
Markdown
# Banatie Project Roadmap
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## 📅 Date Management Approach
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**Philosophy:** Dates for completed work (track velocity), estimates for future work (reduce stress).
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- ✅ **Completed tasks:** Record actual completion date
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- 🔄 **In progress:** Show start date + estimated duration
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- 📅 **Future tasks:** Show estimated duration only (e.g., "2-4 weeks", "3 months")
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- 🎯 **Milestones:** Relative timeframes from key decision points (e.g., "Month 3 after validation")
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**Why:** With 15-20 hrs/week availability, fixed deadlines create false pressure. Relative estimates allow flexibility while tracking actual velocity for better future planning.
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---
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## 🎯 Current Status
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**Phase:** Pre-launch / ICP Validation
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**Version:** 1.1
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**Next Milestone:** Complete ICP External Validation
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---
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## ✅ Completed Sprint: Foundation (Oct 20 - Oct 30)
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### ✅ COMPLETED
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- [x] Market positioning clarified (Completed: Oct 25, 2025)
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- [x] ICP hypothesis validated internally - founder IS the ICP (Completed: Oct 28, 2025)
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- [x] Pricing strategy drafted - hybrid credits + subscription model (Completed: Oct 29, 2025)
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- [x] MVP scope defined - MCP + core features (Completed: Oct 30, 2025)
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- [x] Documentation framework established - filesystem MCP approach (Completed: Oct 30, 2025)
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---
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## 🔄 Active Sprint: ICP External Validation
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**Started:** Oct 31, 2025
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**Est. duration:** 2 weeks
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**Owner:** Oleg
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### Status
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- Interviews completed: **0 / 10**
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- Decision: GO/PIVOT/STOP pending
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### Tasks
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- [ ] Create throwaway Reddit account (stealth mode)
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- [ ] Post in r/ClaudeAI: "How do you handle images in Claude Code?"
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- [ ] Post in r/ChatGPTCoding: "AI-assisted devs: image generation workflow?"
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- [ ] Conduct 10-15 text-based interviews via DM
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- [ ] Fill validation scorecard after each interview
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- [ ] Make GO/PIVOT/STOP decision based on results
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### ⏸️ BLOCKED / WAITING
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- [ ] MVP development (blocked by: need confirmed feature priorities from validation)
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- [ ] Beta user outreach (blocked by: need validated messaging)
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- [ ] Pricing finalization (blocked by: need ICP confirmation of willingness to pay)
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---
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## 📅 Upcoming Milestones
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### Post-Validation Phase (1-2 weeks after validation decision)
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**IF GO decision (60%+ willing to use, 40%+ willing to pay $20+):**
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- [ ] Finalize MVP scope based on validated top 3 needs from interviews
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- [ ] Begin MCP server development
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- [ ] Prepare beta access list from interviews (early adopters identified)
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- [ ] Plan soft launch strategy (Reddit post schedule, messaging)
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**IF PIVOT decision (<60% interest OR weak willingness to pay):**
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- [ ] Select alternative ICP (agencies? e-commerce? different dev segment?)
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- [ ] Prepare new interview script tailored to alternative ICP
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- [ ] Run 5-10 more interviews (est. 1-2 weeks)
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- [ ] Final GO/STOP decision
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**IF STOP decision (<40% interest, no one willing to pay):**
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- [ ] Document learnings (what didn't work, what insights gained)
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- [ ] Thank all interviewees professionally
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- [ ] Decide: tackle different problem OR shut down project
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- [ ] Focus energy back on day job (reduce stress, reassess in 3-6 months)
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### MVP Development Phase (4-6 weeks)
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*(Assuming GO decision)*
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**Est. duration: 4-6 weeks total**
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- **Weeks 1-2:** Core generation pipeline + MCP integration
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- REST API endpoints finalized
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- Prompt Enhancement Agent working
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- Image generation with @name references
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- Basic storage + CDN integration
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- **Deliverable:** Working API (generate + upload + references)
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- **Week 3:** MCP implementation
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- MCP server setup (follow spec)
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- Implement 3 tools: banatie_generate, banatie_upload, banatie_list_images
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- Test with Claude Desktop
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- Documentation for MCP usage
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- **Deliverable:** Working MCP integration
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- **Week 4:** Transformations + UI refinement
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- Image transformation service (Imageflow or Cloudflare)
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- Refine demo UI (code snippets, transformation previews)
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- Dashboard (history, usage stats)
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- API key management
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- **Deliverable:** Functional UI for testing
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- **Week 5:** Payments + polish
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- Stripe integration (credit packs: $20, $50, $100)
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- Free tier limits enforcement (10/month with watermark)
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- Landing page copy + design
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- API documentation (REST + MCP)
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- **Deliverable:** Monetization-ready product
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- **Week 6:** Beta testing + iteration
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- Invite 5-10 validated users from research
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- High-touch onboarding (help with MCP setup)
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- Gather feedback, fix critical bugs
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- Iterate on UX pain points
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- **Deliverable:** Product-market fit signals or pivot triggers
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---
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### Soft Launch & Growth Phase (Months 3-6 after validation)
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**Month 3:** First paying customers
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- Goal: 5-10 beta users onboarded
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- 50+ generations completed
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- 2+ users purchase credits (willingness to pay validated)
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- Target MRR: $200-500
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**Month 4:** Soft launch to communities
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- Post in r/ClaudeAI: "Show HN: Generate images from Claude Code via MCP"
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- Indie Hackers build-in-public post
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- Dev.to technical content (tutorial: "Automate image gen in Next.js with Claude Code")
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- Target MRR: $500-1,000
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**Month 5:** Growth optimization
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- SEO content (start ranking for "AI image generation API", "Claude Code images")
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- Community building (Discord, Reddit presence)
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- Case studies from early users
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- Target MRR: $1-2K (Side Project Validation milestone)
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---
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## 🎯 Long-term Goals (Relative Milestones)
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### Month 6 Checkpoint: Side Project Validation
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**Timeframe:** ~6 months after validation
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**Success criteria:**
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- MRR: $1-2K
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- Customers: 10-20 paying
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- Churn: <5% monthly
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- Signal: Product-market fit OR clear pivot needed
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**Decision:** Continue scaling OR reassess viability
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---
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### Month 9 Checkpoint: Hybrid Mode Decision
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**Timeframe:** ~9 months after validation
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**Success criteria:**
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- MRR: $3-5K
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- Customers: 30-50 paying
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- Usage: Predictable growth pattern
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**Options:**
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- Negotiate 4-day work week with employer (80% salary = $4.8K)
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- OR: Stay full-time job, continue nights/weekends
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- Combined income: $7-10K/month (meets family needs + buffer)
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---
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### Month 12 Checkpoint: Full-time Leap Evaluation
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**Timeframe:** ~12 months after validation
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**Success criteria:**
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- MRR: $6K+ (current salary replacement)
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- OR: 12-month runway saved + high confidence in growth
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- OR: MRR = $4-5K + spouse (Ekaterina) involved in admin with income
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**Decision:** Go full-time on Banatie OR continue hybrid
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**Long-term vision (24-36 months from validation):**
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- $15-30K MRR: Sustainable solo/small team business
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- Hire 1-2 people (support, marketing, or tech)
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- Consider Ekaterina full-time on admin/ops
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---
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## 🚦 Decision Gates
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### GATE 1: ICP Validation (ACTIVE - Est. 2 weeks)
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**Started:** Oct 31, 2025
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**Success criteria (ALL must be met):**
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- 60%+ interviews say "I would use this" (6 out of 10)
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- 40%+ willing to pay $20+ (4 out of 10)
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- 30%+ want early access (3 out of 10)
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- **KILLER USE CASE identified:** ONE specific, frequent, expensive pain mentioned by 60%+ respondents (not scattered generic needs)
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- Budget confirmed (they pay for other tools)
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**Possible outcomes:**
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- ✅ **GO** → Build MVP for AI developers (strong signals)
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- 🔄 **PIVOT** → Test different ICP (weak signals, add 1-2 weeks)
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- 🛑 **STOP** → Shut down or fundamental rethink (no market fit)
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**Review:** Upon completion with @men
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---
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### GATE 2: MVP Launch Readiness (Week 6 of MVP development)
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**Timeframe:** ~6-8 weeks after Gate 1 GO decision
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**Success criteria:**
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- MCP integration works reliably (95%+ success rate)
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- 5-10 beta users onboarded and generating images
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- 50+ generations completed (usage validated)
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- 2+ users purchase credits (monetization validated)
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- No critical bugs blocking core workflow
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**Possible outcomes:**
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- ✅ **LAUNCH** → Soft launch to r/ClaudeAI, Indie Hackers
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- 🔄 **ITERATE** → Add 1-2 weeks for bug fixes, UX improvements
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- 🛑 **PIVOT** → Different approach needed (MCP too complex? Different features?)
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**Review:** Upon completion
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---
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### GATE 3: PMF Validation (Month 6 checkpoint)
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**Timeframe:** ~6 months after Gate 1 GO decision
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**Success criteria:**
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- $1-2K MRR achieved
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- <5% monthly churn (customers staying)
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- "Can't live without" feedback from 3+ users
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- Organic word-of-mouth starting (referrals, shares)
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- Usage growing without marketing spend
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**Possible outcomes:**
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- ✅ **SCALE** → Invest in growth (content, partnerships, paid ads eventually)
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- 🔄 **OPTIMIZE** → Refine product, improve conversion
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- 🛑 **PIVOT/STOP** → No PMF achieved after 6 months, reassess fundamentally
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**Review:** Upon reaching timeframe
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---
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## ⚠️ Risk Mitigation Watch
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### HIGH PRIORITY RISKS
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**1. Burnout Risk (Severity: HIGH)**
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- **Factors:** Full-time job + side project + newborn (Kirill, 2 weeks old) + family of 5
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- **Current exposure:** Working 60+ hrs/week total (40 job + 20 Banatie)
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- **Monitor:** Weekly health check-ins (Sundays)
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- **Mitigation:**
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- Strict time boundaries (no work after 10 PM)
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- One full day off per week (family only)
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- Use Agent Coding (Claude Code) to maximize efficiency
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- Cut scope ruthlessly (MVP, not full vision)
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- **Red flags:** Physical health decline, family tension, day job performance suffering
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- **Abort criteria:** If health/family at risk, pause Banatie (not worth it)
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---
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**2. Financial Pressure Risk (Severity: HIGH)**
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- **Factors:** Zero savings buffer, school tuition coming, single income ($6K/month)
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- **Current exposure:** No emergency fund, Daniel's private school pending
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- **Monitor:** Monthly expense tracking, runway calculation
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- **Mitigation:**
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- Keep day job until Banatie ≥ $6K MRR (non-negotiable)
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- Negotiate hybrid work arrangement early (6-month mark if traction)
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- Bootstrap (no fundraising until PMF clear)
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- Minimize Banatie expenses (use family VPS, free tools)
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- **Red flags:** Credit card debt accumulating, school tuition unpaid, family stress over money
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- **Abort criteria:** If Banatie costs exceed $500/month without revenue
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---
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**3. No PMF Risk (Severity: HIGHEST)**
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- **Factors:** Unvalidated ICP, new category (convergence play), complex product
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- **Current exposure:** Hypothesis not yet tested with external users
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- **Monitor:** Interview feedback, churn rate, usage metrics, qualitative signals
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- **Mitigation:**
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- Brutal ICP validation BEFORE building more (current sprint)
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- Launch ultra-MVP (not full platform)
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- 10-15 customer interviews BEFORE launch
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- Set clear pivot triggers (see Phase 1 decision point)
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- **Red flags:** No one willing to pay, high churn (>10%), "cool idea, but..." feedback
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- **Abort criteria:** After 6 months, if <$500 MRR and no PMF signals → shut down
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---
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**4. Employer Discovery Risk (Severity: MEDIUM)**
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- **Factors:** Building side project while employed, same industry (web dev, AI)
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- **Current exposure:** Public presence needed for marketing (Twitter, LinkedIn, dev.to)
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- **Monitor:** LinkedIn/social mentions, colleague conversations
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- **Mitigation strategies:** (see `backlog/06-future-topics-backlog.md` - "свечение фейса")
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- Use separate brand identity (Banatie, not personal)
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- Delay LinkedIn posting until closer to launch
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- Focus on dev.to, Indie Hackers (less employer monitoring)
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- Check employment contract for IP clauses
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- **Red flags:** Employer asks about side projects, colleagues mention seeing Banatie
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- **Abort criteria:** If employer explicitly forbids, negotiate exit OR pause publicly
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---
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## 📊 Key Metrics Dashboard
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**Updated:** Weekly (every Sunday evening)
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### Validation Metrics (Active Sprint)
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**Sprint started:** Oct 31, 2025
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- Interviews completed: **0 / 10**
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- Positive responses ("I would use"): **- / -**
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- Willing to pay $20+: **- / -**
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- Early access requests: **- / -**
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### Development Metrics (After GO decision)
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- MVP features completed: **- / 8**
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- Beta users onboarded: **- / 10**
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- Generations completed: **- / 50**
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- Credit purchases: **- / 2**
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### Business Metrics (Post-launch)
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- **MRR:** $0
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- **Paying customers:** 0
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- **Churn rate:** N/A
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- **Conversion rate (Free → Paid):** N/A
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- **Usage per user (avg gens/month):** N/A
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---
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## 🔮 Future Considerations (Not Currently Scheduled)
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### Features (Post-PMF, after 50+ users)
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- Flow-based chained generation (complex workflows)
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- On-demand URL generation (programmatic HTML generation)
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- Namespaces / project organization
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- Team collaboration features (multi-user, agencies)
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- Advanced style presets / fine-tuning
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### Market Expansion (After PMF with AI developers)
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- Agency tier ($149/mo for teams)
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- E-commerce vertical (product image generation, Shopify integration)
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- Enterprise tier (custom pricing, SLA, support)
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### Operations (After $10K MRR)
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- Hire VA for customer support
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- Involve Ekaterina (wife) in admin/ops
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- Consider part-time dev help for non-core features
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- Explore partnership opportunities (integrations, resellers)
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---
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## 📋 Action Items Summary
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**Active Sprint (ICP Validation - Started Oct 31):**
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1. Create throwaway Reddit account
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2. Post validation questions in r/ClaudeAI and r/ChatGPTCoding
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3. Conduct 10 text-based interviews
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4. Document results in validation scorecard
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5. Make GO/PIVOT/STOP decision
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**After Validation - IF GO:**
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1. Finalize MVP scope based on interview insights
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2. Set up development environment (if not already done)
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3. Begin MCP server implementation
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4. Prepare beta access list
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**After Validation - IF PIVOT:**
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1. Select alternative ICP
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2. Prepare new interview script
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3. Begin second validation round (est. 1-2 weeks)
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---
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## 🎯 Success Definitions by Stage
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### Pre-launch Success (Current)
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- ✅ ICP validated externally (60%+ interest, 40%+ willing to pay)
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- ✅ MVP scope locked (based on validated needs)
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- ✅ First 5 beta users identified from research
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### Launch Success (Month 3-4)
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- ✅ 5-10 beta users actively using product
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- ✅ 50+ generations completed
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- ✅ 2+ credit purchases (willingness to pay confirmed)
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- ✅ No critical bugs blocking workflow
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### Early Traction Success (Month 6)
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- ✅ $1-2K MRR
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- ✅ <5% monthly churn
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- ✅ Product-market fit signals ("can't live without")
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- ✅ Organic growth starting (word-of-mouth, referrals)
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### Sustainability Success (Month 12)
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- ✅ $6K+ MRR (salary replacement level)
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- ✅ Predictable growth trajectory
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- ✅ Hybrid or full-time transition viable
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- ✅ Clear path to $10-15K MRR
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---
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**Roadmap Owner:** @men + Oleg (joint ownership)
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**Last Updated:** October 31, 2025
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**Next Review:** Upon completion of ICP validation
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**Version Control:** Track major changes via Git commits
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---
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**Quick Reference Commands:**
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- Update metrics: Every Sunday evening
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- Review roadmap: After each decision gate
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- Update action items: As completed or priorities change
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- Archive completed sprints: When moving to next phase
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- Mark tasks complete: Record actual completion dates for velocity tracking
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