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Reality Check: Founder Situation & Constraints

Date: October 19, 2025 Discussion Context: Initial strategic session with @men (business mentor) Status: Living document - update as situation changes

Current Situation

Personal & Family Context

Family composition: 5 people total

  • 2 adults (Oleg + Ekaterina)
  • 2 children (Daniel, born 2019; Kirill, born Oct 7, 2024)
  • 1 grandmother (living with family)

Location: Koh Samui, Thailand

  • 5-year DTV multi-visa for digital nomads
  • Can live and work remotely legally

Critical upcoming expense: Private school for Daniel

  • Current budget: NO allocation for this
  • Timing: Upcoming (exact date TBD)
  • Impact: Major financial pressure point

Financial Reality

Current Income & Expenses

Current employment:

  • Position: Frontend Developer / Tech Lead
  • Employer: IT company (platform for generating designed websites from templates + AI components)
  • Monthly income: $6,000 USD
  • Status: ONLY income source for entire family

Monthly expenses:

  • Current spending: $6,000 USD (tight budget, no buffer)
  • Breakdown: 5 people, Thailand cost of living, no private school yet

Financial Goals

Immediate need (Side Project Mode):

  • +$3,000/month additional income
  • Purpose: Buffer + private school tuition
  • Timeline: As soon as possible
  • Keeps day job: YES

Medium-term goal (Hybrid Mode):

  • $9,000/month total from Banatie
  • Scenario: Negotiate 4-day work week OR maintain full employment
  • Timeline: 12-18 months
  • Keeps day job: Potentially reduced hours

Long-term goal (Full Independence):

  • $9-10,000/month minimum from Banatie (replaces current salary)
  • Dream: Scale beyond $10K ("взлететь до небес")
  • Timeline: 18-24 months (aspirational)
  • Keeps day job: NO

Time Constraints & Capabilities

Available Time for Banatie

Current allocation:

  • Weekday evenings: 2-3 hours (after family time)
  • Weekends: 8-10 hours (Saturday + Sunday)
  • Total: ~15-20 hours/week

Constraint: Full-time employment + newborn (Kirill, 2 weeks old as of this discussion)

  • High risk of burnout
  • Family time non-negotiable
  • Sleep deprivation factor (newborn care)

Technical Capabilities (Force Multiplier)

Core skills:

  • 8+ years frontend development (React, Next.js)
  • Deep expertise: Headless CMS (Sanity, Storyblok, Hygraph, Contentful, Crystallize, Payload)
  • Additional: Shopify, modern web stack, API integration
  • Strong: JavaScript, TypeScript, HTML, CSS, Web APIs, Tailwind CSS

Secret weapon: Agent Coding

  • Proficient with Claude Code (uses at day job too)
  • Enables faster development without getting stuck
  • This is why solo development is viable despite time constraints

Current MVP status: ✅ Core API service (Express + Node.js) ✅ UI application (Next.js) ✅ Basic feature set:

  • Text-to-image generation (Gemini 2.5 Flash Image)
  • Image upload
  • Get all images
  • API key management
  • Authorization via API key ✅ Code snippet generation (curl, Python, SDK, MCP) for every UI action ✅ Documentation skeleton (needs content)

Infrastructure:

  • Hosting: Family VPS (Contabo, Singapore location)
  • Current services: NextCloud + multiple services for domain/Docker management
  • Plan: Migrate to dedicated VPS when needed

Strategic Timeline Recommendations

Phase 1: Side Project Mode (Months 0-6)

Objective: Validate ICP + reach $1-2K MRR

Time allocation: 15-20 hours/week Day job status: Keep 100% Key activities:

  • ICP research & validation (10-15 customer interviews)
  • Launch stripped-down MVP to first customers
  • Manual onboarding, high-touch support
  • Build in public (dev.to, Twitter/X, Indie Hackers)

Financial target: $1-2K MRR Success criteria:

  • 5-10 paying customers
  • <5% monthly churn
  • Consistent usage (not just sign-up)
  • Positive word-of-mouth

Decision point at 6 months:

  • If MRR < $500: Serious pivot conversation OR shut down
  • If MRR = $500-1.5K: Continue, refine approach
  • If MRR > $1.5K: Green light for Phase 2

Phase 2: Hybrid Mode (Months 6-12)

Objective: Scale to $3-5K MRR + get employer flexibility

Time allocation: Need to negotiate for more time Day job status: Options to explore:

  1. Negotiate 4-day work week (80% salary = $4.8K)
  2. Remote days specifically for Banatie work
  3. Freelance/contract basis (if employer open)

Key activities:

  • Scale customer acquisition
  • Improve product based on feedback
  • Hire virtual assistant for support (if needed)
  • More aggressive marketing (SEO, content, partnerships)

Financial target: $3-5K MRR Combined income scenario:

  • Banatie: $3-5K MRR
  • Day job (reduced): $4-5K/month
  • Total: $7-10K/month (meets family needs + buffer)

Success criteria:

  • 15-30 paying customers
  • <3% monthly churn
  • Predictable growth (not stagnant)
  • Product-market fit signals clear

Decision point at 12 months:

  • If MRR < $2K: Reassess viability, consider shut down
  • If MRR = $2-5K: Continue hybrid, optimize
  • If MRR > $5K: Evaluate full-time leap

Phase 3: Full-Time Leap (Months 12-24)

Objective: Replace day job income, go full-time on Banatie

Time allocation: 40+ hours/week on Banatie Day job status: QUIT (scary, but necessary for scale)

Conditions for leap:

  • Banatie MRR ≥ $6K (current salary replacement)
  • OR: 12-month runway saved + high confidence in growth trajectory
  • OR: Banatie MRR = $4-5K + spouse (Ekaterina) takes on admin work with income

Financial target: $9-10K MRR minimum (comfortable living + growth buffer)

Success criteria:

  • 40-60 paying customers
  • <3% monthly churn
  • Strong PMF (can't-live-without feedback)
  • Clear growth levers identified

Long-term vision (24-36 months):

  • $15-30K MRR: Sustainable solo/small team business
  • Hire 1-2 people (support, marketing, or tech)
  • Consider wife (Ekaterina) full-time on admin/ops

Risk Assessment & Mitigation

Risk 1: Burnout (HIGH)

Factors:

  • Full-time job + side project + newborn + family of 5
  • ~60-70 hour work weeks total
  • Sleep deprivation

Mitigation:

  • Set strict time boundaries (no work after 10 PM)
  • One day/week fully off (family only)
  • Use Agent Coding to maximize efficiency
  • Cut scope ruthlessly (MVP, not full vision)

Red flags to watch:

  • Physical health decline
  • Family tension
  • Day job performance suffering

Abort criteria: If health/family at risk, pause Banatie (not worth it)

Risk 2: Financial Pressure (HIGH)

Factors:

  • Zero savings buffer
  • School tuition coming
  • Single income (Oleg only)
  • Family of 5 dependent

Mitigation:

  • Keep day job until Banatie ≥ $6K MRR (non-negotiable)
  • Negotiate hybrid work arrangement early (6-month mark)
  • Bootstrap (no fundraising until PMF clear)
  • Minimize Banatie expenses (use family VPS, free tools)

Red flags:

  • Credit card debt accumulating
  • School tuition unpaid
  • Family stress over money

Abort criteria: If Banatie costs exceed $500/month without revenue

Risk 3: Employer Discovery (MEDIUM)

Factors:

  • Building side project while employed
  • Same industry (web development, AI)
  • Public presence needed for marketing (Twitter, LinkedIn, dev.to)

Mitigation strategies: (see separate document: future_topics_backlog.md - "свечение фейса")

  • Use separate brand identity (Banatie, not personal)
  • Delay LinkedIn posting until closer to launch
  • Focus on dev.to, Indie Hackers (less employer monitoring)
  • Check employment contract for IP clauses

Red flags:

  • Employer asks about side projects
  • Colleagues mention seeing Banatie content
  • Contract has non-compete clauses

Abort criteria: If employer explicitly forbids, negotiate exit OR pause publicly

Risk 4: No Product-Market Fit (HIGHEST)

Factors:

  • New category (convergence, not proven)
  • Unclear ICP (multiple hypotheses)
  • Complex product (6-stage pipeline)

Mitigation:

  • Brutal ICP validation BEFORE building more
  • Launch ultra-MVP (not full platform)
  • 10-15 customer interviews BEFORE launch
  • Set clear pivot triggers (see Phase 1 decision point)

Red flags:

  • No one willing to pay
  • High churn (>10%)
  • "Cool idea, but..." feedback (no urgency)

Abort criteria: After 6 months, if <$500 MRR and no PMF signals → shut down

Realistic Outcomes (Probability Assessment)

Best Case (20% probability)

  • Nail ICP immediately, fast PMF
  • $5K MRR by month 9
  • $10K+ MRR by month 18
  • Full-time leap successful
  • Outcome: Sustainable family business, financial freedom

Base Case (50% probability)

  • Find PMF after 1-2 pivots
  • $2-3K MRR by month 12
  • Hybrid work arrangement with employer
  • Slow but steady growth to $6-8K MRR by month 24
  • Outcome: Meaningful side income, eventual full-time potential

Worst Case (30% probability)

  • No PMF after multiple attempts
  • <$1K MRR by month 12
  • Shut down to preserve sanity/family
  • Outcome: Learned expensive lessons, back to day job 100%

Key Decisions Already Made

✅ Bootstrapping: No external funding (for now) ✅ Solo founder: No co-founder search (leverage Agent Coding instead) ✅ Tech stack: Express, Next.js, Gemini, MinIO, PostgreSQL, Cloudflare ✅ Location: Stay in Thailand (location arbitrage advantage) ✅ API-first approach: Developer-focused, not consumer ✅ Side project mode: Keep day job until $6K+ MRR from Banatie

Key Decisions Pending

⏳ ICP selection: Which target audience to validate first? (see 03_icp_research_questions.md) ⏳ MVP scope: What to cut from initial launch? ⏳ Pricing strategy: Free tier or paid-only? Trial length? ⏳ Launch timing: When to go public? (pre-launch landing page now?) ⏳ Marketing channels: Which 1-2 channels to focus on? ⏳ Employer conversation: When/how to negotiate flexibility?

Accountability Check-Ins

Weekly review (Sundays):

  • Hours worked on Banatie this week
  • Key accomplishments
  • Blockers/challenges
  • Health check (burnout signs?)

Monthly review (last Sunday of month):

  • MRR update
  • Customer count
  • Churn rate
  • Progress toward phase goals
  • Adjust strategy if needed

Quarterly review (every 3 months):

  • Major pivot/continue/shut-down decision
  • Financial reassessment
  • Family situation update
  • Next quarter OKRs

Support System

Family:

  • Ekaterina (wife): Potential future involvement in admin/ops
  • Grandmother: Childcare support (frees up Oleg's time)

Technical:

  • Claude Code: Development force multiplier
  • Agent coding tools: Maintain velocity despite time constraints

Mentorship:

  • @men (business mentor): Strategic guidance, accountability, market knowledge

Community:

  • Dev.to, Indie Hackers, Twitter/X: Build in public, feedback, support

Document owner: @men + Oleg (joint) Next review: After ICP validation (2-3 weeks) Related docs: 01_market_positioning_and_segments.md, 03_icp_research_questions.md