banatie-strategy/02_reality_check.md

# Reality Check: Founder Situation & Constraints

**Date:** October 19, 2025
**Discussion Context:** Initial strategic session with @men (business mentor)
**Status:** Living document - update as situation changes

---

## Current Situation

### Personal & Family Context
**Family composition:** 5 people total
- 2 adults (Oleg + Ekaterina)
- 2 children (Daniel, born 2019; Kirill, born Oct 7, 2024)
- 1 grandmother (living with family)

**Location:** Koh Samui, Thailand
- 5-year DTV multi-visa for digital nomads
- Can live and work remotely legally

**Critical upcoming expense:** Private school for Daniel
- Current budget: NO allocation for this
- Timing: Upcoming (exact date TBD)
- Impact: Major financial pressure point

---

## Financial Reality

### Current Income & Expenses

**Current employment:**
- Position: Frontend Developer / Tech Lead
- Employer: IT company (platform for generating designed websites from templates + AI components)
- Monthly income: **$6,000 USD**
- Status: **ONLY income source for entire family**

**Monthly expenses:**
- Current spending: **$6,000 USD** (tight budget, no buffer)
- Breakdown: 5 people, Thailand cost of living, no private school yet

### Financial Goals

**Immediate need (Side Project Mode):**
- **+$3,000/month** additional income
- Purpose: Buffer + private school tuition
- Timeline: As soon as possible
- Keeps day job: YES

**Medium-term goal (Hybrid Mode):**
- **$9,000/month** total from Banatie
- Scenario: Negotiate 4-day work week OR maintain full employment
- Timeline: 12-18 months
- Keeps day job: Potentially reduced hours

**Long-term goal (Full Independence):**
- **$9-10,000/month minimum** from Banatie (replaces current salary)
- Dream: Scale beyond $10K ("взлететь до небес")
- Timeline: 18-24 months (aspirational)
- Keeps day job: NO

---

## Time Constraints & Capabilities

### Available Time for Banatie
**Current allocation:**
- Weekday evenings: 2-3 hours (after family time)
- Weekends: 8-10 hours (Saturday + Sunday)
- **Total: ~15-20 hours/week**

**Constraint:** Full-time employment + newborn (Kirill, 2 weeks old as of this discussion)
- High risk of burnout
- Family time non-negotiable
- Sleep deprivation factor (newborn care)

### Technical Capabilities (Force Multiplier)

**Core skills:**
- 8+ years frontend development (React, Next.js)
- Deep expertise: Headless CMS (Sanity, Storyblok, Hygraph, Contentful, Crystallize, Payload)
- Additional: Shopify, modern web stack, API integration
- Strong: JavaScript, TypeScript, HTML, CSS, Web APIs, Tailwind CSS

**Secret weapon: Agent Coding**
- Proficient with Claude Code (uses at day job too)
- Enables faster development without getting stuck
- **This is why solo development is viable despite time constraints**

**Current MVP status:**
✅ Core API service (Express + Node.js)
✅ UI application (Next.js)
✅ Basic feature set:
  - Text-to-image generation (Gemini 2.5 Flash Image)
  - Image upload
  - Get all images
  - API key management
  - Authorization via API key
✅ Code snippet generation (curl, Python, SDK, MCP) for every UI action
✅ Documentation skeleton (needs content)

**Infrastructure:**
- Hosting: Family VPS (Contabo, Singapore location)
- Current services: NextCloud + multiple services for domain/Docker management
- Plan: Migrate to dedicated VPS when needed

---

## Strategic Timeline Recommendations

### Phase 1: Side Project Mode (Months 0-6)
**Objective:** Validate ICP + reach $1-2K MRR

**Time allocation:** 15-20 hours/week
**Day job status:** Keep 100%
**Key activities:**
- ICP research & validation (10-15 customer interviews)
- Launch stripped-down MVP to first customers
- Manual onboarding, high-touch support
- Build in public (dev.to, Twitter/X, Indie Hackers)

**Financial target:** $1-2K MRR
**Success criteria:**
- [ ] 5-10 paying customers
- [ ] <5% monthly churn
- [ ] Consistent usage (not just sign-up)
- [ ] Positive word-of-mouth

**Decision point at 6 months:**
- If MRR < $500: Serious pivot conversation OR shut down
- If MRR = $500-1.5K: Continue, refine approach
- If MRR > $1.5K: Green light for Phase 2

---

### Phase 2: Hybrid Mode (Months 6-12)
**Objective:** Scale to $3-5K MRR + get employer flexibility

**Time allocation:** Need to negotiate for more time
**Day job status:** Options to explore:
1. Negotiate 4-day work week (80% salary = $4.8K)
2. Remote days specifically for Banatie work
3. Freelance/contract basis (if employer open)

**Key activities:**
- Scale customer acquisition
- Improve product based on feedback
- Hire virtual assistant for support (if needed)
- More aggressive marketing (SEO, content, partnerships)

**Financial target:** $3-5K MRR
**Combined income scenario:**
- Banatie: $3-5K MRR
- Day job (reduced): $4-5K/month
- **Total: $7-10K/month** (meets family needs + buffer)

**Success criteria:**
- [ ] 15-30 paying customers
- [ ] <3% monthly churn
- [ ] Predictable growth (not stagnant)
- [ ] Product-market fit signals clear

**Decision point at 12 months:**
- If MRR < $2K: Reassess viability, consider shut down
- If MRR = $2-5K: Continue hybrid, optimize
- If MRR > $5K: Evaluate full-time leap

---

### Phase 3: Full-Time Leap (Months 12-24)
**Objective:** Replace day job income, go full-time on Banatie

**Time allocation:** 40+ hours/week on Banatie
**Day job status:** QUIT (scary, but necessary for scale)

**Conditions for leap:**
- Banatie MRR ≥ $6K (current salary replacement)
- OR: 12-month runway saved + high confidence in growth trajectory
- OR: Banatie MRR = $4-5K + spouse (Ekaterina) takes on admin work with income

**Financial target:** $9-10K MRR minimum (comfortable living + growth buffer)

**Success criteria:**
- [ ] 40-60 paying customers
- [ ] <3% monthly churn
- [ ] Strong PMF (can't-live-without feedback)
- [ ] Clear growth levers identified

**Long-term vision (24-36 months):**
- $15-30K MRR: Sustainable solo/small team business
- Hire 1-2 people (support, marketing, or tech)
- Consider wife (Ekaterina) full-time on admin/ops

---

## Risk Assessment & Mitigation

### Risk 1: Burnout (HIGH)
**Factors:**
- Full-time job + side project + newborn + family of 5
- ~60-70 hour work weeks total
- Sleep deprivation

**Mitigation:**
- Set strict time boundaries (no work after 10 PM)
- One day/week fully off (family only)
- Use Agent Coding to maximize efficiency
- Cut scope ruthlessly (MVP, not full vision)

**Red flags to watch:**
- Physical health decline
- Family tension
- Day job performance suffering

**Abort criteria:** If health/family at risk, pause Banatie (not worth it)

---

### Risk 2: Financial Pressure (HIGH)
**Factors:**
- Zero savings buffer
- School tuition coming
- Single income (Oleg only)
- Family of 5 dependent

**Mitigation:**
- Keep day job until Banatie ≥ $6K MRR (non-negotiable)
- Negotiate hybrid work arrangement early (6-month mark)
- Bootstrap (no fundraising until PMF clear)
- Minimize Banatie expenses (use family VPS, free tools)

**Red flags:**
- Credit card debt accumulating
- School tuition unpaid
- Family stress over money

**Abort criteria:** If Banatie costs exceed $500/month without revenue

---

### Risk 3: Employer Discovery (MEDIUM)
**Factors:**
- Building side project while employed
- Same industry (web development, AI)
- Public presence needed for marketing (Twitter, LinkedIn, dev.to)

**Mitigation strategies:** (see separate document: `future_topics_backlog.md` - "свечение фейса")
- Use separate brand identity (Banatie, not personal)
- Delay LinkedIn posting until closer to launch
- Focus on dev.to, Indie Hackers (less employer monitoring)
- Check employment contract for IP clauses

**Red flags:**
- Employer asks about side projects
- Colleagues mention seeing Banatie content
- Contract has non-compete clauses

**Abort criteria:** If employer explicitly forbids, negotiate exit OR pause publicly

---

### Risk 4: No Product-Market Fit (HIGHEST)
**Factors:**
- New category (convergence, not proven)
- Unclear ICP (multiple hypotheses)
- Complex product (6-stage pipeline)

**Mitigation:**
- Brutal ICP validation BEFORE building more
- Launch ultra-MVP (not full platform)
- 10-15 customer interviews BEFORE launch
- Set clear pivot triggers (see Phase 1 decision point)

**Red flags:**
- No one willing to pay
- High churn (>10%)
- "Cool idea, but..." feedback (no urgency)

**Abort criteria:** After 6 months, if <$500 MRR and no PMF signals → shut down

---

## Realistic Outcomes (Probability Assessment)

### Best Case (20% probability)
- Nail ICP immediately, fast PMF
- $5K MRR by month 9
- $10K+ MRR by month 18
- Full-time leap successful
- **Outcome:** Sustainable family business, financial freedom

### Base Case (50% probability)
- Find PMF after 1-2 pivots
- $2-3K MRR by month 12
- Hybrid work arrangement with employer
- Slow but steady growth to $6-8K MRR by month 24
- **Outcome:** Meaningful side income, eventual full-time potential

### Worst Case (30% probability)
- No PMF after multiple attempts
- <$1K MRR by month 12
- Shut down to preserve sanity/family
- **Outcome:** Learned expensive lessons, back to day job 100%

---

## Key Decisions Already Made

✅ **Bootstrapping:** No external funding (for now)
✅ **Solo founder:** No co-founder search (leverage Agent Coding instead)
✅ **Tech stack:** Express, Next.js, Gemini, MinIO, PostgreSQL, Cloudflare
✅ **Location:** Stay in Thailand (location arbitrage advantage)
✅ **API-first approach:** Developer-focused, not consumer
✅ **Side project mode:** Keep day job until $6K+ MRR from Banatie

---

## Key Decisions Pending

⏳ **ICP selection:** Which target audience to validate first? (see `03_icp_research_questions.md`)
⏳ **MVP scope:** What to cut from initial launch?
⏳ **Pricing strategy:** Free tier or paid-only? Trial length?
⏳ **Launch timing:** When to go public? (pre-launch landing page now?)
⏳ **Marketing channels:** Which 1-2 channels to focus on?
⏳ **Employer conversation:** When/how to negotiate flexibility?

---

## Accountability Check-Ins

**Weekly review (Sundays):**
- Hours worked on Banatie this week
- Key accomplishments
- Blockers/challenges
- Health check (burnout signs?)

**Monthly review (last Sunday of month):**
- MRR update
- Customer count
- Churn rate
- Progress toward phase goals
- Adjust strategy if needed

**Quarterly review (every 3 months):**
- Major pivot/continue/shut-down decision
- Financial reassessment
- Family situation update
- Next quarter OKRs

---

## Support System

**Family:**
- Ekaterina (wife): Potential future involvement in admin/ops
- Grandmother: Childcare support (frees up Oleg's time)

**Technical:**
- Claude Code: Development force multiplier
- Agent coding tools: Maintain velocity despite time constraints

**Mentorship:**
- @men (business mentor): Strategic guidance, accountability, market knowledge

**Community:**
- Dev.to, Indie Hackers, Twitter/X: Build in public, feedback, support

---

**Document owner:** @men + Oleg (joint)
**Next review:** After ICP validation (2-3 weeks)
**Related docs:** `01_market_positioning_and_segments.md`, `03_icp_research_questions.md`